PDO Modulation on the Relationship between ENSO and Typhoon Tracks

Abstract

Abstract This study explores the role of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in modulating the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and typhoon tracks. Tropical cyclone (TC) trajectories in the western North Pacific (WNP) in 1950–2017 are clustered into seven clusters, including three recurved trajectories and four straight-moving tracks. These clusters are distinguished well by number of TCs, intensity, lifetime, genesis position/month, landing, and track. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the composite analysis and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of each cluster demonstrate that there are four clusters dominated by ENSO. The associated ENSO effects on these clusters are manifested by steering flow and vertical wind shear (VWS) in the composite differences between El Niño and La Niña years. However, such ENSO effects on TC quantity, genesis location, and track of these corresponding clusters are significantly enhanced during the PDO positive phases only for two clusters that are formed in the southeastern part of the WNP and undergo a long lifetime and track, because the PDO explains little local environmental variance where the other two clusters are located in the northern part of the WNP. This conclusion is also supported by TC track density analysis. The two leading modes of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis of TC track density are significantly correlated with ENSO. The enhancement of ENSO effects during the PDO positive phase exhibits by the second mode through local SST, VWS, and steering flow. Significance Statement Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity can help preparedness and therefore reduce the losses of life and property. Long-term track prediction relies on our understanding how TC tracks are associated with interannual and longer climate variability. This study uses historical data of 1950–2017 in the western North Pacific and reveals that only for two of four track clusters that are affected by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the associated ENSO effects are enhanced during the Pacific decadal oscillation positive phases because the oscillation has significant influence on vertical wind shear and steering flow where these two clusters are located. The findings enrich the mechanisms of TC track variabilities and will help improve long-term prediction of TC tracks.