Abstract
The problem of droughts is acute due to climate change. The study aims to assess the temporal and spatial drought patterns in Lithuanian lowland rivers in the past and to project these phenomena according to climate scenarios and models. Drought analysis was based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). To evaluate the past patterns, the hydrometeorological data of 17 rivers were used from 1961–2020. Future drought changes were analyzed in 2021–2100 according to the selected RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) using the hydrological model HBV. There were different patterns of droughts in three hydrological regions of Lithuania (Western, Central and Southeastern). The Southeastern region was more prone to extreme summer hydrological droughts, and they had a shorter accumulation period compared to the other two regions. SPI and RDI indices showed that the number of dry months and the minimum value of the index increased, extending the accumulation period. The highest correlation was recorded between RDI-12/SPI-12 and SDI-12. The amplitude between extremely wet and dry values of river runoff will increase according to RCP8.5. The projections indicated that hydrological drought intensity in the Central region is expected to increase under both analyzed RCPs.
Highlights
Drought is a recurring phenomenon that has plagued civilization throughout history [1]
One river from each hydrological region was selected for more detailed analysis and drought projections in the near (2021–2060) and far future (2061–2100) periods
The present study revealed that the Lithuanian lowland river catchments distinguish by considerable differences in precipitation and river runoff as well as drought formation
Summary
Drought is a recurring phenomenon that has plagued civilization throughout history [1]. Droughts are among the costliest natural hazards that influence various economic sectors and ecosystems in many different ways. This slowly moving hazard can affect virtually all climatic regimes [2]. It can occur in any part of Europe, in both high and low rainfall areas, and at any time of the year. Pan-European studies [4] show a statistically significant tendency towards less frequent and severe drought events over
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