Pass-Through of Exchange Rate and Tariffs into Import Prices of India: Currency Depreciation versus Import Liberalisation

Abstract

This paper examines the extent of pass-through of exchange rate and tariff changes into import prices using sectoral panel data (at the 2-digit SITC level) for the post-reform period in India (1990-2001). After having controlled for unobserved effects that might have an impact on the import prices by using sector dummies, we find that on average exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) is a dominant effect compared to tariff rate pass-through (TRPT) in explaining changes in India's import prices. The sectoral panel results suggest that the pass-through of exchange rates and tariff rates varies across products. ERPT into import prices is significant in 12 industries, whereas TRPT is significant only in 6 industries, with full pass-through. However, ERPT is incomplete only in 4 industries, but TRPT is incomplete in 36 industries, which means that firms exporting to India more frequently adopt strategies to maintain their market share against tariffs than against exchange rate changes. The sectoral differences in pass-through seem to be related to the sector's share in total imports and the sector's effective protection rate. Hence India's relatively high levels of protection have an impact on the behaviour of foreign exporters.