Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Ghana: is there asymmetry?

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to reexamine the speed and magnitude of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices in Ghana.Design/methodology/approachThe Johansen Maximum Likelihood approach is employed in the estimation of different models of symmetric and asymmetric ERPT. Specifically asymmetric ERPT models with respect to the direction and size of exchange rate changes are estimated.FindingsResults reveal that even though a depreciation in the nominal effective exchange rate will lead to an increase of consumer prices in the long-run, it is not statistically significant. Evidence also suggests a significant asymmetry with respect to direction and size of exchange rate changes. This indicates that the right ERPT model is an asymmetric model. Specifically ERPT is found to be incomplete but relatively higher in periods of depreciation than in periods of appreciation; that is 53 percent against 3 percent. ERPT is also higher during episodes of large changes (about 51 percent).Research limitations/implicationsIt would have been interesting to analyze the impact on consumer prices through changes in import prices. That approach was not adopted due to lack of consistent data on import prices in Ghana.Practical implicationsIt is imperative that the monetary authorities critically monitor exchange rate movements in order to be able to take swift policy action so as to counteract any inflationary pressures from the external sector. In particular, much attention should be paid to events and arrangements that could result in large depreciation of the exchange rate.Originality/valueWhile previous studies have assumed a symmetric ERPT model for Ghana, this paper is unique in that it investigates the most appropriate model for examining ERPT in Ghana whether symmetric or an asymmetric.