Party System Decline in Colombia: A Subnational Examination of Presidential and Senate Elections from 1994 to 2006

Abstract

While many Latin American party systems are experiencing new levels of volatility, the Colombian case allows us to examine the effects of performance factors such as violence and unemployment, while controlling for the consequences of structural change. What best explains changes in the Colombian party system? In the 1980s and 1990s, national level institutional changes created a uniform shock to the party system. Meanwhile, the country faced crucial problems of political violence and economic crisis. Have these challenges undermined the stability of the party system? We test two hypotheses. First, high levels of political violence will increase support for nontraditional parties. Second, economic crisis will increase support for nontraditional parties.