Parametric Assessment of Seasonal Drought Risk to Crop Production in Bangladesh

Mahiuddin Alamgir,Rajab Homsi,Ali Yuzir,Mohammed Shiru,Shamsuddin Shahid,Xiaojun Wang,Nor Alias,Morteza Mohsenipour

doi:10.3390/su11051442

Abstract

Droughts are more damaging when they occur during crop growing season. This research assessed the spatial distribution of drought risks to crops in Bangladesh. Catastrophe theory-based weighting method was used to estimate drought hazard, exposure, and risk by avoiding potential human bias. Ten major crops, including eight different types of rice, wheat, and potato, were selected for evaluation of drought risk. Results showed that 32.4%, 27.2%, and 16.2% of land in Bangladesh is prone to extreme Kharif (May-October), Rabi (November-April), and pre-Kharif (March-May) droughts, respectively. Among the major crops, Hybrid Boro rice cultivated in 18.2% of the area is found to be highly vulnerable to droughts, which is followed by High Yield Varity (HYV) Boro (16.9%), Transplant Aman (16.4%), HYV Aman (14.1%), and Basic Aman (12.4%) rice. Hybrid Boro rice in 12 districts, different varieties of Aman rice in 10 districts, and HYV Boro rice in 9 districts, mostly located in the north and northwest of Bangladesh, are exposed to high risk of droughts. High frequency of droughts and use of more land for agriculture have made the region highly prone to droughts. The methodology adopted in this study can be utilized for unbiased estimation of drought risk in agriculture in order to adopt necessary risk reduction measures.

Highlights

Droughts, floods, pests, labor shortage, price fluctuations, and political factors influence risks to agricultural production in most countries in the world [1,2,3,4]
As the major crops are grown during the Kharif, Rabi, and pre-Kharif seasons in Bangladesh, drought hazards during these three seasons were estimated
The standardized precipitation index (SPI) values estimated for a particular return period at different stations were interpolated and intercepted with the Bangladesh district map to measure the drought hazard of each district using the area-weighted average method

Summary

Introduction

Floods, pests, labor shortage, price fluctuations, and political factors influence risks to agricultural production in most countries in the world [1,2,3,4]. The effects of climate on agriculture are more significant compared to other factors. Bangladesh is amongst the top disaster-prone countries in the world [13]. Droughts constitute a major natural disaster that often affects the agronomics of the country [14]. According to [18], the vulnerability of the land in Bangladesh to droughts is up to 2.7 million hectares annually. Estimates by the Climate Change Cell of Bangladesh showed that 83% of the Kharif and Rabi crop lands are exposed to different severities of droughts

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion