Abstract
Drought characterization and risk assessment are of great significance due to drought’s negative impact on human health, economy, and ecosystem. This paper investigates drought characterization and risk assessment in the Lempa River basin in Central America. We applied the Standardized Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (SEDI) for drought characterization and drought hazard index (DHI) calculation. Although SEDI’s applicability is theoretically proven, it has been rarely applied. Drought risk is generally derived from the interactions between drought hazard (DHI) and vulnerability (DVI) indices but neglects resilience’s inherent impact. Accordingly, we propose incorporating DHI, DVI, and drought resilience index (DREI) to calculate drought risk index (DRI). Since system factors are not equally vulnerable, i.e., they are heterogeneous, our methodology applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to find the weights of the selected factors for the DVI computation. Finally, we propose a geometric mean method for DRI calculation. Results show a rise in DHI during 2006–2010 that affected DRI. We depict the applicability of SEDI via its relationship with El Nino-La Nina and El Salvador’s cereal production. This research provides a systematic drought risk assessment approach that is useful for decision-makers to allocate resources more smartly or intervene in Drought Risk Reduction (DRR). This research is also useful for those interested in socioeconomic drought.
Highlights
Drought is triggered by anomalies in meteorological variables, such as a lack of precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration demand
As mentioned in the calculation of Standardized Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (SEDI), it can be calculated at different aggregation periods
SEDI is highly correlated with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in different time steps, especially in lower than nine months
Summary
Drought is triggered by anomalies in meteorological variables, such as a lack of precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration demand. These water anomalies can further lead to deficits in soil moisture and runoff [1,2,3]. Drought has a negative impact on the agriculture, service sector, and production market. It has a large impact on human health and ecosystems [4,5,6]. Drought impacts make it one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards [7]. In the last century and the beginning of the present, from 1900 to 2019, drought has affected around three billion people, causing more than 11 million deaths, and triggered global economic losses of
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