Abstract
A new model for risk assessment of agricultural drought based on information diffusion method and variable fuzzy sets (IDM-VFS) was proposed. In addition, an integrated index system of agricultural drought risk was established. In the proposed model, IDM was employed to calculate the agricultural drought risk level classification standards, and then the VFS was adopted to assess the dangerousness, sensitivity, vulnerability, and comprehensive risk of agricultural droughts. In the present study, Nanpan River Basin was employed to assess the agricultural drought risk with the proposed model. The results showed that KaiYuan, ShiZong, QiuBei, and ZhanYi have higher dangerousness, due to water shortage. GuangNan have higher sensitivity and vulnerability because of lower drought resistance level and higher crop planting proportion. The comprehensive agricultural drought risk shows apparent regional characteristics: the central, western and northwestern counties have lower risk than the eastern counties. Moreover, most areas of the Nanpan River Basin are of moderate agricultural drought risk grade. The results are consistent with the actual situation of Nanpan River Basin and verify the model’s effectiveness. The study can provide a scientific reference in drought risk management for local governmental agencies.
Highlights
Drought originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time that results in water shortage for some activity, or some group [1]
Li et al [30] developed a composite model based on improved information diffusion method and variable fuzzy sets to assess the disaster risk
In the support of integrated index system and information diffusion method and variable fuzzy sets (IDM-variable fuzzy sets (VFS)) model, the Nanpan River Basin in Yunnan province was taken as a case study area
Summary
Drought originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time that results in water shortage for some activity, or some group [1]. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation cannot well resolve the duplication information caused by related evaluation indices; the establishment of the relative membership function of the variable fuzzy sets depends on physical analysis and expert experience [29] Taking into consideration these factors, there is a trend that combines the advantages of different of methods to construct a new approach. Li et al [30] developed a composite model based on improved information diffusion method and variable fuzzy sets to assess the disaster risk. The information diffusion method (IDM) can establish the level classification standards of drought risk assessment indices, and help to determine the relative membership function. In this paper IDM was employed to calculate the exceeding probability of every index, based on the national drought planning and drought data, the level classification standards of drought risk assessment indices were established. According to drought grade probability classification standard, the level classification standards of drought risk assessment indices can be obtained
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