Parameters Estimation of Synthetic Unit Hydrograph Model Using Multiple Linear and Non-linear Regressions

Abstract

The use of synthetic unit hydrograph model (SUH) is remain popular used to transform rainfall into run off for water resources development. The typical feature of this model is that the main equation represents the shape of the curve expressed by the relationship between time and discharge. In addition, the SUH model is also expressed in three parameters i.e. peak time (TP), peak discharge (QP), and base time (TB), representing the hydrograph curve equation. In general, SUH model is developed based on morphometry parameters of watershed, especially watershed area (A), main river length (L) and main river slope (S). Another approach in hydrograph modelling is based on the fractal characteristics of watershed. This study aims to develop a synthetic unit hydrograph model based on a combination of morphometry and fractal characteristics of watersheds. The three model parameters (TP, QP and TB) were predicted using multiple linear regression and compared with multiple nonlinear regression. The results of the analysis show that the two methods showed excellent performance. The estimation of SUH parameters using linear regression resulted peak time equation (TP) as function of river length (L), ratio of river length (RL) and density of drainage network (D) with determination coefficient of 99.8%, a base time equation (TB) as the function of watershed area (A) and river slope (S) with determination coefficient of 98.2%. Using multiple non linear regression, estimation of SUH parameters formulated peak time equation (TP) as function of river length (L), ratio of river length (RL) and ratio of watershed area (RA) with determination coefficient of 99.9%, a base time equation (TB) as the function of watershed area (A) and ratio of watershed area (RA) with determination coefficient of 97.9%. Peak discharge equation (QP) is stated as a function of peak time and a simple single curve equation derived from Gamma Distribution Equation.