Comparison of Some Selected Models of Daily Water Supply in Abuja, Federa Capital Territory (FCT) Of Nigeria.

Abstract

Water is considered as an essential commodity in human society. It has been observed that the basic standard of living of any Country can be measure through the effective portable water supply for consumption, sanitation and hygiene for the citizen. Its production and supply in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Nigeria is a challenge, as dominant percentages of lower- class workforce live outside the FCTWB existing water network, and depend on borehole or tanker for water. The demand on the water supply system in FCT, Abuja has exceeded its initial design population, and the system is incomplete and operating with only 720 million liter of water per day (MLD) functioning plant. On this basis, this study seeks to identify the best model that fit daily water supply data in FCT, Abuja and to forecast the future daily water supply in this area. The comparing models were artificial neural, multiple linear and non-linear regression model were applied to the data set of daily water production, daily water treated, daily water supply, daily water leakage, Number of household connected to Federal Capital Territory Water board water network, Number of Commercial area connected to Federal Capital Territory Water board water network, and the Estimated population of Federal Capital Territory ,Abuja from (2013 to 2020), and it was emerged that the most adequate model for the data was Multiple linear regression model (MLR), with (R2 =1.000), (RMSE = 0.00282), and (MAE = 6.540). Artificial neural network records the high value of (RMSE = 432.4321), (MAE = 549.444) and (R2 =0.921), and multiple nonlinear regression record the highest value of (RMSE = 806.687), (MAE = 666.421) and (R2 = 0.999). From the statistical measure of goodness of fit, the three models compared results indicate that MLR model forecast are closely matching with actual observations values, artificial neural network model over-forecast some days volume of daily water supply by FCTWB, cooperation and multiple nonlinear regression model under-forecast some days volume of daily water supply by FCTWB, corporation. The three models compared depicts the influential variables of FCTWB Corporation daily water supply, (ANN = DWP, DWT), (MLR = DWT, DWL) and (MNLR = DWP, DWL), and their forecast graphs shows downward daily water supply in FCT, Abuja. It is recommended that the FCT, Abuja water Board Corporation should consider multiple linear regression (MLR) model and its forecasted values as a road map in its operations and planning toward water supply sustainability in FCT, Abuja.