Overview of econometric tourism demand modelling and forecasting

Abstract

This chapter provides a comprehensive review of tourism demand modelling and forecasting studies published in the last six decades (1961–2021), focusing on studies that have taken an econometric approach. This review covers both simple regression methods and advanced dynamic econometric methods, such as autoregressive distributed lag models, cointegration and error correction models, time-varying parameter models, and vector autoregressive models. It includes a description of the process of econometric modelling and forecasting and concludes by highlighting the trends in tourism demand forecasting.