Tourism demand modelling and forecasting.

Abstract

Abstract This chapter provides an overview of the recent developments in tourism demand modelling and forecasting since the 1990s. While a wide range of forecasting models is available for tourism demand forecasting, tourism managers should use models that are based on solid economic theories and provide reliable forecasts. In addition, this chapter suggests that in addition to forecasting error magnitude, directional change errors and turning point forecasting should be studied. Moreover, since no single model consistently generates superior forecasts across all situations, combining the forecasts generated from different forecasting methods improves tourism demand forecasting accuracy.