Outpost of tyranny? The failure of democratization in Belarus

Abstract

The article outlines campaigns to promote democracy in Belarus. It discusses the limited impact of the domestic opposition and the West in attaining major changes within the Lukashenka regime. It also offers an analysis of Belarus' relations with Russia, noting how in recent years, Minsk has adopted a more independent path, raising hopes for more cooperation with Europe, most recently through the Eastern Partnership Programme. The international recession has halted the most redeeming aspect of an authoritarian government: impressive economic growth and relatively high living standards. With these new circumstances in place, the paper examines three key questions. What level of democratization will satisfy the European Union (EU)? Was the policy of the United States (and formerly the EU) to isolate Belarus misguided? Has the Lukashenka administration undergone fundamental changes in recent years or are the changes introduced to date mainly cosmetic? Finally, it suggests that the question of democratization is no longer the key item on the agenda concerning the EU's attitude toward Belarus because it has been superseded by strategic partnerships with states in the non-Russian neighbourhood of the former Soviet Union.