Operation Olive Branch

Abstract

The empirical goal of this paper is to conduct an in-depth analysis of Operation Olive Branch, with special attention to its underlying circumstances, timeline, and impacts. In order to tackle these aspects of the topic, I formulate the following hypotheses. First, three primary factors ultimately led to an armed offensive by a geopolitically diminished Turkey: the risk of further of expansion of Kurdish influence in northern Syria (a likely scenario in the case of continued support from the United States), the Assad regime’s attack on Sunni rebels in the province of Idlib, and the regional rivalry with Iran. Second, Russia’s approval for Turkey’s intervention in Afrin strengthened the tactical alliance between the two states. At the same time, it increased Turkey’s geopolitical dependence on Russia in the Middle East. Third, Operation Olive Branch generated serious repercussions for Turkey on the international stage. On the regional level, given the disapproving reactions of Iran, Iraq, and Syria, Turkey has found itself isolated in its campaign against Kurdish aspirations to autonomy. On the international level, the operation has exacerbated the crisis in the relations between Turkey and the United States, which may ultimately produce an existential threat to the integrity of NATO. The article confirms all of the stated hypotheses.