Abstract
The study adds to crime-drop research examining the security hypothesis. It provides evidence that effective security was introduced for some high-risk vehicles from the mid-1980s in England and Wales and causally connects this to a gradual change in the vehicle-related theft rate. Following three decades of exponential increase to 1987, the rate of increase slowed and continued to decelerate to a 1993 peak. Thereafter the rate fell slowly at first then rapidly from 1995. It is concluded that: (i) what became the change in the rate of vehicle-related theft began in the 1980s, which is earlier than typically understood; and (ii) the gradual arc of the theft rate over more than a decade is consistent with new security gradually permeating the vehicle fleet.
Highlights
The study adds to crime-drop research examining the security hypothesis
Signs that vehicle-related theft was abating in the way we suggest below were largely unrecognised, while the possibility that it was about to decline was unthinkable
The present study complements existing security hypothesis research on vehicle theft. It finds that, following three decades of exponential increase from the 1950s, the rate of increase of vehicle-related theft in England and Wales slowed when improved vehicle security was introduced from the mid-1980s
Summary
The study adds to crime-drop research examining the security hypothesis. It provides evidence that effective security was introduced for some high-risk vehicles from the mid-1980s in England and Wales and causally connects this to a gradual change in the vehicle-related theft rate. While vehicle-related theft is the present focus, the research on that crime type is given indirect support by mounting evidence that improvements to household security devices – improved window and door locks and fittings plus security lighting – caused the decline in household burglary in England and Wales. The present study, offers a refinement to the understanding of the relationship between the timing and spread of improved vehicle security and its effect upon vehicle-related theft.
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