Oil outlook to 2025

Abstract

AbstractOil is expected to maintain its leading position in meeting the world's growing energy needs for at least the next two decades. In the reference scenario, oil demand is set to rise by 30 million barrels per day over the next twenty years. However, although developing countries account for most of the rise, energy poverty will remain an important issue. From the supply perspective, the resource base is sufficient to satisfy expected oil demand growth. Non‐OPEC supply is eventually expected to reach a plateau, and, therefore, over the longer‐term, OPEC will be relied upon to supply most of the incremental barrel. These projections underline the need for substantial investment along the entire hydrocarbon supply chain, although the global scale of upstream investment that this outlook implies is not expected to be greater in magnitude than that witnessed in the past. Nevertheless, oil prices must be sufficient to mobilise the resources to supply the market with the necessary oil.In line with OPEC's longstanding commitment to support oil market stability, OPEC crude capacity expansion plans are already in place to reach almost 38 mb/d by the end of 2010. This demonstrates the seriousness OPEC attaches to the need for security of energy supply. However, energy security has to be seen from both supply and demand perspectives. Uncertainty over future demand translates into large uncertainties over the amount of oil that OPEC Member Countries will eventually need to supply. Even over the medium‐term to 2010, there is an estimated range of uncertainty of $50 billion for required investment, increasing to $140 bn by 2015.The investment challenge extends along the entire supply chain. The downstream sector is a very important part of that chain. Over the coming decade, rising volumes, the continued move towards demand for lighter products, and the movement towards significantly cleaner products, means that the downstream sector will require significant investment. However, investments are coming at a considerably slower pace than warranted by the expected demand growth. Ways need to be explored that could accelerate expansion plans, and create the right investment climate.A further critical issue concerns whether increasing use of fossil fuels is consistent with the protection of the environment. Technological options that allow continued use of fossil fuels in a carbon‐constrained world must be considered. One promising example is carbon capture and storage. Steps need to be taken to move this technology forward with large‐scale demonstration projects.