Theoretical limits of OPEC Members’ oil production

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, investigation of theoretical limits of OPEC Members’ crude oil production is carried out. The analysis is performed at three different scenarios: 1. at OPEC's average annual production growth rate of 2.7 per cent; 2. at a growth rate of five per cent; 3. at an average annual growth rate of each OPEC Member based on its oil production in the past 25 years. The results suggest that the organization would fail to fulfil its percentage share in the global oil market by the year 2048, 2037 and 2024 in the first, second and third scenarios, respectively. Moreover, Kuwait showed to be extremely inconsistent and unstable in the three different scenarios, while the United Arab Emirates demonstrated great consistency among other OPEC Members as a result of the country's energy policy adopted many years ago.