Abstract
The oil and gas resources at stake in China’s maritime disputes in the South China Sea are among the key drivers of conflict in this domain, but little is known about their underlying value and potential to address claimant states’ energy security dilemmas. There appear to be significant opportunity costs in China’s approach to these disputed zones and resources, both in the form of damaged regional political relationships and foregone opportunities to exploit more lucrative resources. This essay offers an explanation of China’s behavior with respect to these resources, finding structural conditions in the regional political and economic environment to be a central concern for Chinese leadership and energy firms. Uncertainty about world energy markets and vulnerability to American market and military power are forwarded as crucial drivers of China’s efforts to secure control over offshore hydrocarbons. This argument is developed through comparison to Japan’s management of energy security, and evaluation of the geostrategic circumstances that shape China’s approach to world energy markets.
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