Abstract
Panic buying on the spot market by oil-importing countries led to higher prices and treatened supplies to established market channels. A need for coordinated and cooperative policies among the importing countries became apparent in 1979, although the significance was lost on many governments and the relevant international institutions lacked the power or support to step in. The impacts of this situation are reviewed for the mid-term (to 1985) and the indefinite future. The analysis suggests that the real price of oil must be kept manageable during the 25-year transition period to oil alternatives, but this requires effective cooperation between oil-exporting and oil-importing countries and implies that threats to international stability must be contained or neutralized. Since these two conditions are unlikely, a series of major crises and conflicts should be expected. (DCK)
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