Spillover effects of oil price shocks across stock markets

Abstract

Oil price shock can impose detrimental effects to an economy. In this study, we empirically study the spillover effects of oil price shock on determining volatilities of stock markets across the main oil importing and oil producing countries. In particular, we are interested to compare the relative impact of oil price shock on the volatilities of stock markets and how each stock market reacts to oil price shock for oil importing and oil producing countries. We focus the study in four main oil importer and four oil producers respectively using the daily data starting from January 2009 to December 2013. The multivariate GARCH(1,1) model is applied for the purpose of this study. The results of the study suggest that there exist spillover effect between crude oil price and stock returns for all the countries. The short run persistency of spillover effect in oil-exporting countries is lower than oil-importing countries but the long run persistency of spillover effect in oil-exporting countries is higher than oil-importing countries. In general the short run persistency is smaller and the long run persistency is very high. The results hold for volatility of oil price and stock returns and also spillover volatility in all countries.