Ocean Heat Uptake in Transient Climate Change: Mechanisms and Uncertainty due to Subgrid-Scale Eddy Mixing

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Abstract The ocean heat uptake (OHU) is studied using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ocean general circulation model (OGCM) with idealized ocean geometry. The OGCM is coupled with a statistical–dynamic atmospheric model. The simulation of OHU in the coupled model is consistent with other coupled ocean–atmosphere GCMs in a transient climate change when CO2 concentration increases by 1% yr–1. The global average surface air temperature increases by 1.7°C at the time of CO2 concentration doubling (year 70). The ocean temperature increases by about 1.0°C near the surface, 0.1°C at 1000 m in the Pacific, and 0.3°C in the Atlantic. The maximum overturning circulation (MOTC) in the Atlantic at 1350 m decreases by about 4.5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s–1). The center of MOTC drifts upward about 300 m, and therefore a large OTC anomaly (14 Sv) is found at 2700 m. The MOTC recovers gradually, but the OTC anomaly at 2700 m does not seem to recover after CO2 concentration is kept constant during 400-yr simulat...