Abstract
The statistical error model commonly applied to monthly surface station temperatures assumes a physically incomplete climatology that forces deterministic temperature trends to be interpreted as measurement errors. Large artefactual uncertainties are thereby imposed onto the global average surface air temperature record. To illustrate this problem, representative monthly and annual uncertainties were calculated using air temperature data sets from globally distributed surface climate stations, yielding ±2.7 C and ±6.3 C, respectively. Further, the magnitude uncertainty in the 1961–1990 global air temperature annual anomaly normal, entirely neglected until now, is found to be ±0.17 C. After combining magnitude uncertainty with the previously reported ±0.46 C lower limit of measurement error, the 1856–2004 global surface air temperature anomaly with its 95% confidence interval is 0.8±0.98 C, Thus, the global average surface air temperature trend is statistically indistinguishable from 0 C. Regulatory policies aimed at influencing global surface air temperature are not empirically justifiable.
Highlights
The work of Brohan, et al [1], hereinafter B06, exemplifies the commonly accepted signal-averaging approach to uncertainty [2] in the global average surface air temperature record
Further consequences of the signal averaging statistical model applied within B06 are assessed
Analysis of the statistical protocol commonly used to estimate uncertainty in the global average surface air temperature anomaly index shows it to be fatally flawed. It should be discarded in favor of one that explicitly reflects the lack of knowledge concerning the error variances in surface climate station temperature measurements
Summary
The work of Brohan, et al [1], hereinafter B06, exemplifies the commonly accepted signal-averaging approach to uncertainty [2] in the global average surface air temperature record. Further consequences of the signal averaging statistical model applied within B06 are assessed . The magnitude uncertainty of the 1961-1990 annual anomaly normal is evaluated here for the first time.
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