Abstract
The paper concerns the problem on the computational decision making on evolution of local climate dynamics taking into account inevitable nonlinear nature of such systems and deficiency of reliable data on climate dynamics. With this purpose we consider annual temperature variation in the context of the bifurcation phenomena under the hysteresis regulation with double synchronization. The corresponding conceptual model (HDS-model) provides the homogeniety of the analysed states as well as the ability to derive some constituent of regional (external) impacts on a local climate system. In accordance with the peculiarities of HDS-model dynamics, we formalize three mechanisms of local temperature changes and introduce the corresponding indicators of change-points. It allows to substitute, at least partly, expert analytics concerning identification of qualitative changes in local climate dynamics. Examples of applications of the indicators are presented on the basis of processing the time series of temperature observations on daily mean surface air temperature made over last century. We believe that the results could be applied in order to increase the confidence of estimations about local climate changes.
Highlights
The paper is devoted to the discussion in the field of computational analytics on dynamics of local climate systems, where decision making is based on the processing instrumental observations taking into account inevitable nonlinear nature of such systems
The discussed method of analysis of time series of local temperature observations belongs to the groups of methods grounded on the conceptual model of local climate dynamics, where the observed abnormalities of annual temperature variability are excused by intermittency between three kinds of annual behavior [6, 9, 17, 18]
Such methods are focused on the bifurcation analysis and detailed reconstruction of local climate dynamics; here we focus on both local and regional reasons of the resultant local temperature changes, where bifurcation phenomena form only one of the mechanisms
Summary
The paper is devoted to the discussion in the field of computational analytics on dynamics of local climate systems, where decision making is based on the processing instrumental observations taking into account inevitable nonlinear nature of such systems. Any idea concerning a change-point for nonlinear system dynamics has originally an expert constituent, which allows to adapt the known method for a novel ability in application to a specific task only [13, 15, 16] In other words, it seems to a a non-trivial question on how conceptions of the bifurcation analysis could be transformed by expert intelligence into some adapted indicators of nonlinear evolution in order to realize computationally decision-making on a certain point at least.
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