Estimating of temperature abnormalities in local climate dynamics

Abstract

At present, it becomes more and more nontrivial to answer the question what does it mean a normal behavior in relation to the dynamics of a local climate system: over what and in what sense? The core problem is connected with the fact that the criteria for hazards (or violent and unfavorable weather factors) and damages relate rather to empirical considerations on human convenience and economical profits, but not to the processes of qualitative changes in climate dynamics. We analyse the basic restrictions on the traditional viewpoint and propose the novel approach to identify the normal behavior of a local climate system and to estimate the temperature abnormalities. We accept two basic assumptions: the “normal behavior” relates to any dynamics of the local climate system, including the natural variability with abrupt changes; the “abnormality” relates to a certain technological process and means the difference between the artificial production reference and the natural realized behavior. The main advantage of the approach is connected with the use of the experimental bifurcation analysis on the basis of HDS-model to reconstruct the qualitative changes in the local climate dynamics. It allows to introduce and to ground the piece-wise model of the annual temperature variation concerning a local climate system throughout the term of available temperature observations. The necessary software were designed and realized. The temperature observations made from the end of the 19-th century to 2012 year were analyzed. We consider our research in future to develop the risk estimations of human activity taking into account the natural local climate dynamics in detail.