Abstract
Abstract Background Several risk scores are available which predict pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), but do not differentiate between biochemical leak (BL) and clinically relevant pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF). The aim of this study was to identify factors that differentiate between BL and CR-POPF in the early postoperative period. Methods Consecutive patients diagnosed with BL and CR-POPF after PD were identified from a prospectively maintained database (2009-2019). Data were collected for demographics, intraoperative and laboratory parameters on the first five postoperative days (PODs), including drain fluid amylase (DFA), C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin. Independent predictors of CR-POPF were identified using a multivariable binary logistic regression model, which was subsequently converted to a risk score Results 187 patients consisted of 99 BL and 88 CR-POPF. In those with CR-POPF, the leak became clinically relevant a median of 9 days after surgery; these patients had a significantly higher length of hospital stay than those with BL (median: 24 vs. 10 days, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, male gender (p = 0.002), higher DFA (p < 0.001) or CRP (p < 0.001) on POD3, lower albumin (p = 0.028) on POD3 were all found to be independent predictors of CR-POPF. A risk score based on these factors returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.78. Conclusions In patients with a confirmed pancreatic fistula it may be possible to differentiate between BL and CR-POPF using early postoperative variables, particularly DFA, serum albumin and CRP. Early identification of CR-POPF may allow earlier intervention to improve clinical outcomes.
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