Abstract

North Korea’s 2022 was largely a continuation of the political/economic, military, and diplomatic dynamic from 2020–21, but with different accents. Given the path dependence of military/nuclear modernization, domestic political/economic structural constraints, and the geostrategic situation in East Asia, 2023 in North Korea is likely to continue these same trends. Two big questions loom. (1) How will North Korea open up from COVID border closures, which might make better economic performance possible? (2) How will North Korea manage inter-Korean relations, and is the Korean Peninsula headed for a situation in which the security dilemma of a long-term deterrence relationship between the US–South Korea alliance and North Korea spills over into kinetic conflict?

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