Nonparametric functional analysis under joint estimation with applications to identifying highly cited papers

Abstract

This article introduces a nonparametric methodology combining the strengths of binary regression and latent variable formulations, while overcoming their disadvantages. The mathematical results are implemented through a novel Bayesian Hierarchical estimation methodology called Latent Adaptive Hierarchical Expectation Maximization Like algorithm. Requiring minimal assumptions, it extends extant methodologies, and in simulation studies gives better prediction and inference performances for asymmetric data generating processes. A new classification statistic, called Adjusted Receiver Operating Curve Statistic is also introduced. Utilizing it we demonstrate better overall model fit, inference and prediction performance of the proposed methodology over widely used existing methods in the sciences. In addition, the methodology can be used to perform model diagnostics for any model specification. This is a highly useful result, and it extends existing work for categorical model diagnostics broadly across the sciences. Furthermore, the mathematical results also highlight important new findings regarding the interplay of statistical significance and scientific significance. Finally, the methodology is applied to identifying highly-cited papers in the social sciences in a joint estimation framework. The results indicate that the methodology outperforms widely used existing artificial intelligence and machine learning models with very few Monte Carlo iterations. In Scientometric application, it finds Journal Impact Factor to be more important than Keyword Popularity parameters for explaining citation outcomes in select social science fields. It further finds that the percentage change in Published Popularity may also help to explain citation outcomes in the field. The findings appear to be new to the Scientometric field.