New models for feasibility assessment and electrolyser optimal sizing of hydrogen production from dedicated wind farms and solar photovoltaic farms, and case studies for Scotland and Vietnam

Abstract

Although green hydrogen produced from dedicated wind and PV plants is considered an alternative route to achieve net zero targets, its assessment models are only being developed in recent years. Even though electrolyser is known to account for a large portion of the investment costs, there is still a lack of sizing models for this equipment, which can negatively affect the feasibility of plants. Moreover, the impacts of future technology maturity and cost reduction on the feasibility of hydrogen production plants are rarely analysed and reported. Realising the research gaps from previous studies, this paper proposes a comprehensive feasibility assessment model for green hydrogen production from dedicated offshore wind and PV plants, utilising net present value, discounted payback time, and levelised cost of energy and of hydrogen (LCOH) as economic evaluation criteria. Furthermore, a unique sizing model is presented, allowing the optimal electrolyser size with the lowest LCOH to be found. Two case studies investigating a hypothetical offshore wind farm in Scotland and a hypothetical PV farm in Vietnam to produce green hydrogen have been carried out, in which the impacts of technology maturity and cost reduction on the LCOH are analysed. It is projected that the LCOH in Scotland and Vietnam case studies, with specific conditions and assumptions of the two cases, would reduce from 3.10 and 3.05 $/kg in 2030 to the lowest values of 2.16 and 1.59 $/kg in 2050, respectively. Additionally, the optimal electrolyser capacity is found to equal 89.3% of the offshore wind plant capacity, and 57.7% of the PV plant capacity. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted, which revealed the capital cost of renewable energy plants has the most significant effect on the final LCOH.