Green hydrogen prospects in Peninsular Malaysia: a techno-economic analysis via Monte Carlo simulations

Abstract

According to Malaysia's National Energy Transition Roadmap, hydrogen is a critical component of the country's energy transition. However, there is a scarcity of hydrogen studies for Peninsular Malaysian states, which limits discussions on green hydrogen production. This study employs a Monte Carlo model to assess the economic and technical factors influencing the success of green hydrogen in Peninsular Malaysia. The study focuses on three target years: 2023, 2030, and 2050, representing various stages of technological development and market adoption. The levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of a 1-MW Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolyzer system ranges from $5.39 to $10.97 per kg in 2023, highlighting early-stage challenges and uncertainties. A 6-MW PEM electrolyzer system could achieve an LCOH of $3.50 to $4.72 per kg by 2030, indicating better prospects. Because of technological advancements and cost reductions, a 20-MW PEM electrolyzer system could achieve an LCOH of $3.12 to $3.64 per kg in 2050. The findings indicate that the northern regions of Peninsular Malaysia have consistently low LCOH values due to favorable geographical conditions. Due to minor variations in solar capacity factors, uncertainty distributions in LCOH remain stable across different regions. Some states may face increased uncertainty, emphasizing the need for additional policy support mechanisms to mitigate risks associated with green hydrogen investments. The sensitivity analysis shows that key cost drivers are shifting, with early-stage electrolyzer investments dominating in 2023 and electricity prices becoming more important in 2030 and 2050. Future research could focus on optimizing green hydrogen systems for areas with underdeveloped green hydrogen industries. This study contributes to informed discussions about green hydrogen production by emphasizing the importance of tailored strategies that consider local conditions and highlighting the role of Peninsular Malaysia in the energy transition.