New elasticities and projections of global demand for coniferous sawnwood

Abstract

Coniferous sawnwood is the most important solid wood product in terms of its production volume and economic significance. It also plays a vital role in the forestry-forest industry value chain. We estimated price- and income elasticities for per capita softwood sawnwood consumption based on FAO data. Varying demand patterns are found across the regions. Only the countries with little supply from their own domestic sources had significant price elasticities of demand, relatively inelastic in the short-term, but more elastic in the long-term. They also tended to have the highest income elasticities. The elasticity estimates obtained for the panels of very low- or very high-income countries were not statistically significant.The potential for demand growth for coniferous sawnwood was assessed under five SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. The demand increase varies a lot from 88 to 154 Mm3 from 2015 to 2030 but demonstrates that the market growth can provide solid support for bioeconomy formation in the terms of economic income, carbon storage and substitution possibilities, and supply of by-products to other traditional or emerging products.