Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted global tourism, raising the need for sustainable recovery strategies. This study examines how tourists’ confidence in tourism recovery (CTR) influences travel intentions across different pandemic phases—outbreak, stabilization, and conclusion. Positioned within the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), the research explores the mediating role of CTR in the relationships between attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and travel intention. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), multi-group analysis (MGA), and Importance–Performance Matrix Analysis (IPMA), this study assesses changes in travel behavior during each pandemic phase. Data were collected through three surveys conducted in major Chinese cities between late 2022 and early 2023. The findings reveal that CTR significantly mediates the influence of behavioral factors on travel intention, especially during the stabilization and conclusion phases. The IPMA results highlight key areas for intervention, with CTR, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norms varying in importance across phases. This research underscores the need for adaptive and sustainable strategies to strengthen traveler confidence, offering practical insights for supporting long-term resilience and growth in the tourism industry during and beyond health-related crises.
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