An Evaluation Study on the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Water Ecological Security in the Hotan River Basin

Abstract

With the intensification of global climate change, inland river basins in arid desert regions are facing serious challenges in water supply and ecological and environmental protection. A water ecological security assessment is important as a key management tool in the context of inland river basins situated in arid desert areas. This study evaluated the water ecological security of the Hotan River Basin based on a combination of the Ecology–Produce–Life Space perspective and the Drive–Pressure–Status–Influence–Respond (DPSIR) model. The entropy value method and the composite index method were employed for this purpose, and a regression analysis was used to establish a prediction model to forecast the future water ecological security status. The results show that from 2013 to 2020, the water ecological security status of the Hotan River Basin exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, shifting from an average to a good status. The pressure layer has the greatest impact on water ecological security, while the ecological space within the Ecology–Produce–Life Space is increasing in the overall share year by year. In the future, the water ecological safety condition of the Hotan River Basin is expected to improve and remain in good condition. Taking the Hotan River Basin as an example, the results of this study, combining the Ecology–Produce–Life Space perspectives and the DPSIR model, provide in-depth theoretical and practical value for the evaluation and prediction of water ecological security in inland river basins in arid desert areas, provide a scientific basis and feasible suggestions for relevant decision-making, and emphasize the importance of ecological spatial protection and restoration for the sustainable development of human society and ecosystems.