‘Mutual Hurting Stalemates’, ‘Ripe Moments’ and Third-party Intervention: Implications for the ‘Southern Cameroons' Restoration of Statehood’ Conflict

Abstract

This paper explores ex-British Southern Cameroons' restoration of independence and statehood conflict with the Republic of Cameroon from the perspective of Zartman's ‘mutual hurting stalemates’ and ‘ripe moments’ framework in the timing of peace initiatives by third-party interveners. In analysing the conflict, the argument in the article is that powerful third parties need to use their power to intervene in deep-rooted conflicts whether or not they are violent, because violent or not, such conflicts remain destructive. The article traces the conflict from the independence-by-joining concept of the United Nations against the background of the incompatibility theory of plural societies. It provides an exploration of the dynamics involved in Zartman's framework, including its criticisms. The discussion of the implications of the concept highlights the vested interests of international mediating powers in play in international mediations, especially in post-colonial settings involving power imbalance between the conflict parties. In situations such as the Southern Cameroons' restoration of independence and statehood conflict with no open war and thousands of casualties, refugee flows and visible material destruction, the article questions whether the ‘mutual hurting stalemates’ and ‘ripe moment’ concept may not be a rationalisation for inaction.