Multi-scale analysis-driven tourism forecasting: insights from the peri-COVID-19

Abstract

ABSTRACT Tourism managers and practitioners rely on accurate demand forecasting and well-informed management guidance. Given the pandemic’s consequences on tourism, future analysis in the during-epidemic era is urgently needed. This study aims to achieve three goals combining the utilization of decomposition algorithms and deep learning models: 1) to investigate the changes in tourism demand according to seasonal fluctuations of various frequencies, 2) to improve modelling accuracy in tourism demand forecasting during non-crisis periods and in the peri-COVID-19 era, and 3) to analyze tourism demand evolution in the peri-Covid-19 era. The volume of domestic tourism in Hawaii is used as sample data for demonstration and validation. The empirical findings demonstrate that the framework provided in this study has excellent interpretability and forecasting accuracy, surpasses all benchmark models in terms of error calculation and statistical tests and can provide further insights into peri-Covid-19 demand analysis and management.