Multi-State Modeling Incorporated with Analytical Approach for Reliability Evaluation

Abstract

Renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, biomass, wave and tidal energy have become favourable alternatives to replace conventional generators due to excessive emission of harmful gaseous and depletion of natural resources. From all of the energy sources, solar photovoltaic is chosen in this paper because it is considered as an inexhaustible energy in Malaysia. Yet it is still in infancy stage due to high cost of implementation. This paper adopts a multi-state method for photovoltaic output power modelling which is incorporated with analytical technique to evaluate the capacity outage probability of a power system consisting both conventional and renewable generators. Consequently, this is to evaluate the system reliability index which is the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP). The results show that the presence of solar photovoltaic enhances the overall LOLP of the system.