Mortality and Life Assurance Statistics

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Sir William P. Elderton and Mr. M. E. Ogborn read a paper before the Royal Statistical Society on March 16 on “The Mortality of Adult Males since the Middle of the Eighteenth Century as shown by the Experience of Life Assurance companies”. Life assurance as we know it began in 1762, when the Society for Equitable Assurances on Lives and Survivorships was founded and, until early in the nineteenth century, this was the only company having a substantial number of lives assured on its books. The lives represent a provident type drawn from the professional and business classes, with a sprinkling of landed gentry on one hand and of clerks and servants on the other. Three mortality experiences were quoted : Arthur Morgan's, 1762-1829 ; H. W. Manly's, 1863-1893 ; and a recent experience, 1924-1938. The rates of mortality were light and show a steady decrease up to about age 77. In the most recent experience the rates of mortality are about one fourth of those of the first experience up to age 47, and rather less than one half of those of the second experience. The proportional fall decreases at the older ages until there is little change from age 82 onwards. As regards the general population, the English Life Tables Nos. 3, 5 and 10 were used for comparison as they correspond most nearly in date to the assurance experiences. From No. 3 to No. 5 the mortality decreased by about one quarter at early adult ages and by about one tenth between ages 30 and 40. From then onwards No. 5 shows an increase in mortality over No. 3, and even though the methods of construction and reliability differ it seems probable that mortality actually increased. From No. 5 to No. 10 there was a decrease of about one half in the rates of mortality up to age 47, dropping to one tenth at age 77, and showing on the whole a smaller decrease at the later ages. These changes are similar to those between the two corresponding experiences of the assurance offices, though the general population has, as would be expected, a higher mortality than that of lives assured.