More intensive use and lifetime extension can enable net-zero emissions in China’s cement cycle

Abstract

Demand-side material efficiency strategies could play a key role in decarbonizing the cement cycle as conventional supply-side measures leave little room for improvement and emerging technologies are still in their infancy and expensive. This study quantitatively evaluates CO2 reduction opportunities through China’s cement cycle by more intensive use and lifetime extension during 2023–2060. More intensive use and lifetime extension can cumulatively save cement consumption by ∼58 gigatons (Gt) during 2023–2060, resulting in CO2 emission reductions of ∼33.8 Gt without considering supply-side actions and cement carbonation. If supply-side measures and cement carbonation are considered, China’s cement cycle could achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2060 or even mid-century. Besides, it is important to assess social implications, opportunities, and challenges of lower per-capita stocks and longer service-life, when we aim to realize these emission reductions. Also, trade-offs between CO2 fluxes should be considered in cement decarbonization road mapping because more intensive use and lifetime extension can lower CO2 uptake by cement carbonation.