Abstract
This study used Monte Carlo simulation as a methodology to analyze the percentage of failure in Waste Stabilization Pond (WSP) systems in meeting the discharge standards in water bodies. We used monitoring data from 10 full-scale WSP in operation in Rio Grande do Norte, northeast Brazil. The Kolmogorov - Smirnov (KS) adherence test followed by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) allowed the selection of the most representative Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of each sample set. Simulations with 3000 iterations allowed us to construct synthetically the selected distributions and, thus, to calculate the percentages of non-compliance with the standard of interest. Among the simulated parameters, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) of unfiltered samples showed the highest percentage of failure over the pond series. The failure percentages of thermotolerant coliforms and pH parameters were correlated with physical and operational variables such as hydraulic retention time, depth and organic loading. The information presented provides an overview of the occurrence of failure and the inherent risks of stabilization pond treatment technology.
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