Abstract
Understanding the effects of socio-ecological shocks on land use/land cover (LULC) change is essential for developing land management strategies and for reducing adverse environmental pressures. Our study examines the impacts of the armed conflict in Syria, which began in mid-2011, and the related social and economic crisis on LULC between 2010 and 2018. We used remote sensing for change detection by applying a supervised maximum likelihood classification to Landsat images of the three target years 2010, 2014, and 2018. Based on the computed extent of our LULC classes and accuracy assessment, we calculated area-adjusted estimates and 95% confidence intervals. Our classification achieved an overall accuracy of 86.4%. Compared to 2010, we found an increase in spatial extent for bare areas (40,011 km2), forests (2576 km2), and urban and peri-urban areas (3560 km2), whereas rangelands (37,005 km2) and cultivated areas (9425 km2) decreased by 2018. It is not possible to determine whether the changes in LULC in Syria will be permanent or temporary. Natural conditions such as climate fluctuations had an impact on the uses of the natural environment and cultivated areas during the study period, especially in regions suffering from water stress. Although seasonal precipitation patterns and temperature affect LULC change, however, we could not identify a prevailing climate trend towards more drought-prone conditions. Our analysis focuses on (potential) direct and indirect implications of the Syrian conflict on LULC change, which most notably occurred between 2014 and 2018. Conflict-related main drivers were human activities and demographic changes, which are mainly attributable to large-scale population displacement, military operations, concomitant socio-economic status, and control of local resources. As the study provides quantitative and qualitative information on the dynamics of LULC changes in Syria, it may serve as a framework for further relevant conflict-related research and support planning, management practices, and sustainable development.
Highlights
In the face of a growing world population, changing demands of land-based products, environmental changes and feedbacks, and increasing global interconnectivity due to ongoing globalization processes, understanding the diverse and complex interactions of social-ecological land systems and linkages across different scales remains a major challenge
Natural conditions such as climate fluctuations had an impact on the uses of the natural environment and cultivated areas during the study period, especially in regions suffering from water stress
Taking all target years and all land use/land cover (LULC) classes into account, we obtained on average higher users accuracies (UA) than producers accuracies (PA), which overall indicates higher commission errors than omission errors
Summary
In the face of a growing world population, changing demands of land-based products, environmental changes and feedbacks, and increasing global interconnectivity due to ongoing globalization processes, understanding the diverse and complex interactions of social-ecological land systems and linkages across different scales remains a major challenge. Changes in land use/land cover (LULC) can result in direct and indirect impacts on natural habitats, biodiversity, and terrestrial landscapes. The conversion processes of LULC are a major driver in global environmental change [1,2,3,4]. As land cover is defined as the combination of biotic and abiotic components on the. Land use comprises cultivated areas, urban or built-up land, pastures, recreational green areas, managed woods, and is considered an induced modification of natural land cover [1]. Monitoring and mapping changes in LULC is pivotal for environmental management, land and water resource sustainability, and regional and urban planning needs
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