Abstract
The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.
Highlights
Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes species mosquitoes, notably Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus
One alternative approach that obviates the need to model the complex interactions of extrinsic and intrinsic factors related to Chikungunya transmission is correlative niche modelling, which treats the disease as a species with a specific environmental niche
Projections for two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) show rather similar global patterns in the suitability- and hazard maps that were generated in this study
Summary
Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes species mosquitoes, notably Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Global interconnectivity ensures a continued risk for importations of Chikungunya into regions with competent mosquito vectors, until very recently there were no global distribution models for this viral disease, and comparatively little research identifies global regions of climatic suitability for Chikungunya transmission It is, well known that climate affects growth, survival and abundance of the two primary vectors for Chikungunya, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus[14]. One alternative approach that obviates the need to model the complex interactions of extrinsic and intrinsic factors related to Chikungunya transmission is correlative niche modelling, which treats the disease as a species with a specific environmental niche This includes environmental effects on the pathogen (such as ambient temperature affecting the virus’ replication rate in the ectothermic vector’s body) as well as vector distribution. Applied for species distribution models of disease vectors[18] as well as in conservation biology, this approach has successfully been applied to dengue[21], Chikungunya[22], Zika[23] and other diseases[24,25,26]
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