3 - Scenarios for urban resilience—perspective on climate change resilience at the end of the 21st century of a photovoltaic-powered mixed-use energy community in two European capitals

Abstract

Cities are particularly susceptible to extreme and sudden catastrophic events, such as climate change, pandemics, and wars, that change people's lives. No city is completely safe from unforeseen risks; resilience indicates the ability of cities to be prepared for disasters and sudden events, allowing people to adapt and live without being exposed to too much stress. Resilience shows that the threat is not entirely negative; it can be a great opportunity to generate change and open new possibilities related to development and innovation. In this perspective, cities can emerge as driving forces for adaptation to change in which resilience becomes a central and crucial factor for sustainable development. One of the recurring questions today is how to make cities energy independent. This work analyzes the change in electricity supply from photovoltaic (PV) systems as a consequence of climate change in a hypothetical mixed energy community located in two European cities characterized by different climates, Rome and Berlin. The analysis was extended to possible climate change scenarios by including possible future climate effects due to mitigation policies, scenarios selected from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Specifically, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were included, that is, the stabilization scenario and the high emissions scenario. The hourly electrical power values of the PV system are calculated in TRNSYS software, considering the years 2020 and 2100. A comparison of the different scenarios shows that Berlin RCP 8.5 suffers a greater impact than Rome RCP 8.5 in 2100. Even though the RCP 8.5 scenario is a worst-case scenario, comparing 2020 and 2100 shows that there are greater differences in Berlin than in Rome. Berlin shows a high level of excess energy, but this is not always a good thing because it does not always pay to overload the grid, especially during peak hours.