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Abstract
It is predicted that climate change will strongly affect plant distributions in high elevation “sky islands” of tropical Andes. Polylepis forests are a dominant element of the treeline throughout the Andes Cordillera in South America. However, little is known about the climatic factors underlying the current distribution of Polylepis trees and the possible effect of global climate change. The species Polylepis quadrijuga is endemic to the Colombian Eastern Cordillera, where it plays a fundamental ecological role in high-altitude páramo-forest ecotones. We sought to evaluate the potential distribution of P. quadrijuga under future climate change scenarios using ensemble modeling approaches. We conducted a comprehensive assessment of future climatic projections deriving from 12 different general circulation models (GCMs), four Representative Concentration Pathways (R) emissions scenarios, and two different time frames (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Additionally, based on the future projections, we evaluate the effectiveness of the National System of Protected Natural Areas of Colombia (SINAP) and Páramo Complexes of Colombia (PCC) in protecting P. quadrijuga woodlands. Here, we compiled a comprehensive set of observations of P. quadrijuga and study them in connection with climatic and topographic variables to identify environmental predictors of the species distribution, possible habitat differentiation throughout the geographic distribution of the species, and predict the effect of different climate change scenarios on the future distribution of P. quadrijuga. Our results predict a dramatic loss of suitable habitat due to climate change on this key tropical Andean treeline species. The ensemble Habitat Suitability Modeling (HSM) shows differences in suitable scores among north and south regions of the species distribution consistent with differences in topographic features throughout the available habitat of P. quadrijuga. Future projections of the HSM predicted the Páramo complex “Sumapaz-Cruz Verde” as a major area for the long-term conservation of P. quadrijuga because it provides a wide range of suitable habitats for the different evaluated climate change scenarios. We provide the first set of priority areas to perform both in situ and ex situ conservation efforts based on suitable habitat projections.
Highlights
The Andean region is a South American biodiversity hotspot, home to an impressively high diversity and endemism (Myers et al, 2000; Antonelli and Sanmartín, 2011)
Polylepis forests are unique montane ecosystems, naturally occurring at high elevations in the Andes (Hoch and Körner, 2005; Navarro et al, 2005). These forests are generally present as sparse patches separated by vast areas of Páramo or puna grasslands (Fjeldså, 2002; Jameson and Ramsay, 2007) dominated mainly by Polylepis spp., that are endemic to South American mountain ranges, and tend to occur along the upper treeline (Simpson, 1979, 1986; Fjeldså et al, 1996)
P. quadrijuga is endemic to the Colombian Eastern Cordillera slopes and rocky areas that are usually immersed within the Páramo grassland matrix (Simpson, 1986; Schmidt-Lebuhn et al, 2006; Rangel-Ch and Arellano-P, 2010; PérezEscobar et al, 2018; Peyre et al, 2018)
Summary
The Andean region is a South American biodiversity hotspot, home to an impressively high diversity and endemism (Myers et al, 2000; Antonelli and Sanmartín, 2011). Polylepis treeline forests are the source of essential cultural, economic, and ecosystem services, providing pivotal ecological functions such as absorbing moisture from the clouds and releasing water in springs and rivers while being optimal habitats for other threatened and endemic species (Kessler, 2006; Donald et al, 2010) These forests require special conservation efforts (Purcell and Brelsford, 2004; Pinos, 2020) as they are threatened by deforestation, fires, farming, timber extraction, and land-use change (Fjeldså et al, 1996; Etter and Villa, 2000; Kessler, 2002; Hensen et al, 2011)
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