Modelling Shifts and Contraction of Seed Zones in Two Mexican Pine Species by Using Molecular Markers

Sergio Leonel Simental-Rodriguez,Carlos A López-Sánchez,Alberto Pérez-Luna,Christian Wehenkel,Juan Pablo Jaramillo-Correa,Artemio Carrillo-Parra,Lluvia Flores-Rentería,José Ciro Hernández-Díaz

doi:10.3390/f12050570

Abstract

A seed zone or provenance region is an area within which plants can be moved with little risk of maladaptation because of the low environmental variation. Delineation of seed zones is of great importance for commercial plantations and reforestation and restoration programs. In this study, we used AFLP markers associated with environmental variation for locating and delimiting seed zones for two widespread and economically important Mexican pine species (Pinus arizonica Engelm. and P. durangensis Martínez), both based on recent climate conditions and under a predicted climate scenario for 2030 (Representative Concentration Pathway of ~4.5 Wm−2). We expected to observe: (i) associations between seed zones and local climate, soil and geographical factors, and (ii) a meaning latitudinal shift of seed zones, along with a contraction of species distributions for the period 1990–2030 in a northward direction. Some AFLP outliers were significantly associated with spring and winter precipitation, and with phosphorus concentration in the soil. According to the scenario for 2030, the estimated species and seed zone distributions will change both in size and position. Our modeling of seed zones could contribute to reducing the probabilities of maladaptation of future reforestations and plantations with the pine species studied.

Highlights

A seed zone or provenance region is an area within which plants can be moved with little risk of maladaptation because of low environmental variation [1]
Environmental variation does not always translates into adaptive variation; it can result in non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity [13], which is difficult to detect in the field
AFLP have limits when predicting local adaptation [43,113,114,115], especially if only a small number of populations and AFLP related to environmental variables are used

Summary

Introduction

A seed zone or provenance region is an area within which plants can be moved with little risk of maladaptation because of low environmental variation [1]. As local adaptation usually differs clinally across the landscape [5], fixed-boundary zones can be studied by considering the maximum climatic or geographic distance of transfer between the origin and planting sites, as outlined in the “floating principle” of seed transfer [6,7] This principle recognizes that similar genotypes tend to occur in similar environments [5]. Seed zones can be delineated: (i) by conducting provenance trials to detect associations between genetic, geographic and climatic factors [8,9,10]; (ii) by correlating climate and geomorphological data; and (iii) by using climate surrogates, such as latitude, longitude and/or elevation [5]; with the risk that such variables are not always good phenotype predictors for widespread tree species (e.g., [11]). Provenance trials cannot be made for all species and, using environment-related environmental markers and comparing them to the neutral genetic structure could be more effective

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion