Climate Change Impact on Three Important Species of Wild Fruit Forest Ecosystems: Assessing Habitat Loss and Climatic Niche Shift

Abstract

As global biodiversity hotspots, wild fruit forests play key ecological functions, providing essential ecosystem services such as carbon storage, soil retention, and water conservation, and support food chains and biodiversity conservation through key species. Climate change, with rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, threatens wild fruit forests by reducing the habitats and numbers of key species, potentially turning these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources and diminishing overall biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, research on how these changes affect important species’ habitats and carbon dynamics remains insufficient. To address this, we analysed habitat suitability for three important species (Prunus armeniaca L., Malus sieversii, and Prunus ledebouriana (Schltdl.) Y.Y.Yao with the aim of informing conservation strategies. We used biomod2 to integrate environmental and species data using six methods, encompassing 12 models. We predicted overlapping geographical distributions of three species, analysing their ecological niches and environmental interactions using global datasets to understand their adaptations. This analysis revealed ecological niche shifts and reductions in resource utilisation in both current and future scenarios. Their distribution centres will move poleward under the influence of bioclimatic factors and human activities. In conclusion, protecting P. armeniaca, M. sieversii, and P. ledebouriana is essential for the conservation and overall health of wild fruit forest ecosystems. This study provides new insights into climate change, habitat loss, informing conservation and resilience strategies.