Spatial Distribution Patterns of the Key Afforestation Species Cupressus funebris: Insights from an Ensemble Model under Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Cupressus funebris Endl. (C. funebris) is an evergreen tree endemic to China that is classified as a national second-class endangered plant. This species plays critical roles in soil and humidity conservation, climate regulation, and ecological restoration. It is also important in silvicultural production, which is crucial for maintaining the stability of the ecosystem in Southwest China. In this study, an integrated modeling approach was used to integrate 10 species distribution models to simulate the potential distribution of C. funebris and predict the impact of future climate change on its distribution and ecological niche. Field surveys were conducted to compare the forest stands of C. funebris under different habitat suitability levels. The results showed that the most suitable areas for C. funebris were mainly located in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou, covering an area of approximately 15.651 × 104 km2. The productivity of the C. funebris forest stands in these highly suitable areas and was significantly higher than that in low and moderately suitable areas, although understory plant diversity did not show a competitive advantage. Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution of C. funebris in China will expand and the geographical range of the niche will shift to higher latitudes in northern China as temperatures increase. The extent of this change in the niche’s geographical range intensified as warming increased. Specifically, under the 2090s-SSP585 climate scenario, the highly suitable area for C. funebris is projected to double, suggesting a significant expansion of the geographical range of the niche under this climate model, with more than half of the niche experiencing separation. In summary, the potential distribution of C. funebris may continue to expand and shift to higher latitudes in the context of global warming and its ecological niche’s geographical range will be adjusted accordingly. These findings provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for in situ conservation, ex situ conservation, and rational utilization of C. funebris genetic resources by conducting niche modeling and climate suitability assessments.