Abstract
The paper introduces an innovative utility-based approach to model customer choice for alternative powertrain technologies within a dynamic scenario tool. The study covers a wide portfolio of different powertrain concepts from conventional combustion engines to advanced hybrid and electric cars. The assessment of their economic and technical attributes builds on a large set of vehicle simulation data and detailed cost models. In contrast to previous cost-based studies the applied methodology maps the observed diversity of user characteristics more realistically. Therefore, the driving behaviour and preferences of car buyers are analysed empirically based on major representative surveys and the resulting distribution functions are integrated in the model. After testing and validation with historic data the model is applied to the German vehicle market and a potential scenario for the prospective composition of the new passenger car fleet by 2030 is presented. The scenario simulation shows that a significant reduction of CO2 emissions is feasible especially by the introduction of plug-in hybrids and range extended electric vehicles. However, the growing technical complexity and the additional effort for efficiency improvements also result in increasing total costs of ownership for the customer.
Highlights
In the context of increasing climate protection efforts, limited fossil resources and rising environmental awareness from customer side the electrification of the powertrain is a preeminent development in the transport sector
All relevant input parameters, e.g. fuel prices and the energy consumption of the available vehicles are adjusted to reflect the situation in Germany in the years from 1993 to 2010 [33]
For comparison the simulation is repeated with a conventional least-total cost of ownership (TCO) approach which results in a mean deviation of 5.8%
Summary
In the context of increasing climate protection efforts, limited fossil resources and rising environmental awareness from customer side the electrification of the powertrain is a preeminent development in the transport sector. The German government plans to reduce the energy consumption of transport by 40% in 2050 (compared to 2005 level) according to the recently published mobility and fuel strategy [2]. Reaching these goals will not be feasible with conventional combustion engines. While in the past a user could basically choose between spark ignition (SI) and compression ignition (CI) engines, which have only minor differences in purchase price and fuel consumption, the powertrain portfolio offered by EVS27 International Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium the automotive industry will grow in the future. This paper presents an innovative approach how to choose the optimal powertrain technology for different user characteristics and preferences within a dynamic market scenario model
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