Modeling the impact of the agricultural sector on the development of the regional economic systems

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to study the role of the agricultural sector in the development of regional economic systems. The article uses general scientific and specific research methods, including: abstraction, analysis and synthesis, generalization, statistical and comparative analysis, dialectical and graphic. Within the framework of the study, it is proposed to investigate the impact of the agricultural sector on the regions’ development using the correlation-regression analysis method. The use of the specified methodology made it possible to simulate the regularity of the influence of the volume of agricultural products sold on the gross regional product. The authors investigated the challenges faced by the agricultural sector since the full-scale invasion of Russia on the territory of Ukraine, among which the following are highlighted: the danger of the farmers’ work, limited access to land plots, equipment, fuel and fertilizers, minefields of agricultural land, crop decline, significant economic losses, insufficient resources, destroyed or damaged agricultural enterprises. The share of regions in agricultural production was analyzed, the leader and the outsider regions were distinguished. The study analyzed the impact of the agricultural sector on the development of the Carpathian Economic Region of Ukraine, which includes the Lviv, Chernivtsi, Transcarpathian and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. The results of the study demonstrate a significant relationship between the parameters of the volume of agricultural products sold and the gross regional product in Lviv (0.8801), Chernivtsi (0.8962), Transcarpathian (0.9674) and Ivano-Frankivsk (0.8985) regions. Also, the results of the calculations prove that the defined regression model is significant and corresponds as closely as possible to the real functioning model for all four regions.