Modeling the Effects of Climate Change and Land Use/Land Cover Change on Sediment Yield in a Large Reservoir Basin in the East Asian Monsoonal Region

Abstract

This research addresses the separate and combined impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover on the hydrological processes and sediment yield in the Xin’anjiang Reservoir Basin (XRB) in the southeast of China by using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) hydrological model in combination with the downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projection outputs. The SWAT model was run under a variety of prescribed scenarios including three climate changes, two land use changes, and three combined changes for the future period (2068–2100). The uncertainty and attribution of the sediment yield variations to the climate and land use/land cover changes at the monthly and annual scale were analyzed. The responses of the sediment yield to changes in climate and land use/land cover were considered. The results showed that all scenarios of climate changes, land use/land cover alterations, and combined changes projected an increase in sediment yield in the basin. Under three representative concentration pathways (RCP), climate change significantly increased the annual sediment yield (by 41.03–54.88%), and deforestation may also increase the annual sediment yield (by 1.1–1.2%) in the future. The comprehensive influence of changes in climate and land use/land cover on sediment yield was 97.33–98.05% (attributed to climate change) and 1.95–2.67% (attributed to land use/land cover change) at the annual scale, respectively. This means that during the 2068–2100 period, climate change will exert a much larger influence on the sediment yield than land use/land cover alteration in XRB if the future land use/land cover remains unchanged after 2015. Moreover, climate change impacts alone on the spatial distribution of sediment yield alterations are projected consistently with those of changes in the precipitation and water yield. At the intra-annual scale, the mean monthly transported sediment exhibits a significant increase in March–May, but a slight decrease in June–August in the future. Therefore, the adaptation to climate change and land use/land cover change should be considered when planning and managing water environmental resources of the reservoirs and catchments.