Abstract
Climate change is expected to have stronger effects on water resources in higher latitude regions. Despite intensive research on possible hydrological responses in those regions to a warmer environment, our knowledge on erosion and sediment yield induced by the climate change in high-latitude headwaters is still limited. In this study, we estimated suspended sediment yields from 2021 to 2050 in a typical headwater area of far Northeast China to elucidate potential impacts of future climate change on surface runoff and erosion in higher latitude regions. We first parameterized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using historical measurements to estimate runoff from the river basin. The model performed well in both the calibration (2006–2011) and the validation (2012–2014) periods, with an R2 of 0.85 and 0.88 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.7 and 0.73, respectively. We also utilized historical measurements on sediment yields from the period 2006–2014 to develop a runoff-sediment yield rating curve, and the rating curve obtained an excellent goodness of fit (R2 = 0.91, p < 0.001). We then applied the calibrated SWAT model to two climate change projections, also known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), for the period from 2021 to 2050 to obtain future runoff estimates. These runoff estimates were then used to predict future sediment yield by using the developed runoff-sediment yield rating curve. Our study found a significant increase of annual sediment yield (p < 0.05) for both climate change projections (RCP4.5 = 237%; RCP8.5 = 133%) in this, China’s high-latitude region. The increases of sediment yield were prevalent in summer and autumn, varying from 102–299% between the two RCPs scenarios. Precipitation was the dominated factor that determined the variation of runoff and sediment yield. A warming climate could bring more snowmelt-induced spring runoff and longer rainy days in autumn, hence leading to higher erosion. These findings demonstrate that under the changing climate, soils in this high-latitude headwater area would be eroded twice to three times that of the baseline period (1981–2010), indicating a potential risk to the downstream water quality and reservoir management.
Highlights
The relevance of climate change effects on the hydrological cycle in high-latitude river basins has been increasingly recognized in the recent decade [1,2,3]
Compared with the baseline period (1981–2010), we found that annual runoff in the headwaters of the Yinma River Basin would increase by 88% for RCP4.5 and by 48% for RCP8.5
This study investigated climate change impacts on surface runoff and sediment yield in a high-latitude headwater region of China
Summary
The relevance of climate change effects on the hydrological cycle in high-latitude river basins has been increasingly recognized in the recent decade [1,2,3]. These regions are of critical importance to midWater 2017, 9, 966; doi:10.3390/w9120966 www.mdpi.com/journal/water. Studies have demonstrated that global warming is intensifying hydrological cycles more in high-latitude regions than in other geographical regions, both temporarily and spatially [7,8]. Changes in surface runoff have been recognized by several recent studies as a direct response of high-latitude regions to a warming world. In a modeling study, Donnelly et al found a robust increase in runoff and discharge in the Scandinavian mountains over most of Norway, Sweden, and northern
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