Abstract
Artificial neural network shows a good performance in predicting renewable energy. Many versions of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have been implemented to predict solar potential. This study aims to determine the monthly solar radiation in Semarang, Indonesia using ANN, and to visualize monthly solar irradiance as a map of the solar system of Semarang. This research applied the perceptron multi-layer ANN model, with 7 variables as input data of network learning, which were maximum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, rainfall, longitude, latitude, and elevation. The input data set was obtained from a NASA normalized geo-satellite database website with a 5-year average daily score. Network training used backpropagation with one of the input layers, two of hidden layers, and one of the output layer. The performance of the model during the analysis of mean absolute percentage error was highly accurate (6.6%) when 12 and 10 neurons were respectively installed in the first and second hidden layers. The result was presented in a monthly map of solar potential within the geographical information system (GIS) environment. The result showed that ANN was able to be one of the alternatives to estimate solar irradiance data. The sun irradiance map can be used by the government of Semarang City to provide information about the solar energy profile for the implementation of the solar energy system.
Highlights
Semarang is the fifth largest metropolitan city in Indonesia after Jakarta, Surabaya, Medan, and Bandung
The results of this study indicate a significant correlation in evaluating the potential for monthly solar radiation between measured and predicted values
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modeling was successfully developed in this research to estimate the solar radiation potential in Semarang
Summary
Semarang is the fifth largest metropolitan city in Indonesia after Jakarta, Surabaya, Medan, and Bandung. As one of the developing cities on the island of Java, Semarang has a population of more than 1.7 million people. Semarang is a regional government center and the metropolitan city is committed to maintaining sustainable development, including the energy sector. The availability of clean and affordable energy is one of the sustainable development objectives. Fossil energy currently has become a global problem and issue that is why the efforts to provide clean energy have become the main attention of both central and local governments. In Indonesia, policy for new and renewable energies is set in Government Regulation No 79 of 2014 on National Energy Policy. The new and renewable energies are targeted to reach 23% in 2025, and a minimal 31% in 2050. It is targeted that dependence on oil and coal will decrease by 20% and 25%, respectively [1], [2]
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